An option is a derivative instrument since its value is derived from the underlying asset. It is essentially a right but not an obligation to buy or sell an asset. Options can be a call option (right to buy) or a put option (right to sell). An option is valuable if and only if the prices are varying.
An option by definition has a fixed period of life, usually 3 to 6 months. An option is a wasting asset in the sense that the value of an option diminishes as the date of maturity approaches and on the date of maturity it is equal to zero.
An investor in options has 4 choices before him. Firstly, he can buy a call option meaning a right to buy an asset after a certain period of time. Secondly, he can buy a put option meaning a right to sell an asset after a certain period of time. Thirdly, he can write a call option meaning he can sell the right to buy an asset to another investor. Lastly, he can write a put option meaning he can sell a right to sell to another investor. Out of the above 4 cases in the first 2 cases the investor has to pay an option premium while in the last 2 cases the investor receives an option premium.
When we talk of value of an option, we are essentially referring to the value of the right which is derived from the volatility of the stock. Greater the volatility, greater the value of the option.
Options have been traded across the world at exchanges and have a variety of financially engineered products under its umbrella. This section on options intriduces you to the basics and is a comprehensive guide to all those interested in the exotic world of derivatives.
Option Defined
An option is a derivative. That is, its value is derived from something else. In the case of a stock option, its value is based on the underlying stock (equity). In the case of an index option, its value is based on the underlying index (equity).
Puts And Calls
Options come in two primary forms. They are calls and puts. One call option gives the holder the right, not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of the underlying stock at a fixed price and for a fixed period of time. A put option gives the holder the right, not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock for a fixed price and for a fixed period of time. This is why an option is considered to be a 'wasting' asset. Since the option only has value for a fixed period of time, its value decreases, or 'wastes' away with the passage of time. In the case of an index option, the holder can participate in the movement of the index. However, these options are cash settled and therefore, the holder of the option will never wind up with a position in the underlying securities.
Four Components to an Option
There are four components to an option. They are: The underlying security, the type of option (put or call), the strike price, and the expiration date. Let's take an XYZ November 100-call option as an example. XYZ is the underlying security. November is the expiration month. 100 is the strike price (sometimes referred to as the exercise price). And the option is a call (the holder has the right, not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of XYZ at a price of 100).
Types Of Expiration
There are two different types of options with respect to expiration. There is a European style option and an American style option. The European style option cannot be exercised until the expiration date. Once an investor has purchased the option, it must be held until expiration. An American style option can be exercised at any time after it is purchased. Today, most stock options, which are traded, are American style options. And many index options are American style. However, there are many index options, which are European style options. An investor should be aware of this when considering the purchase of an index option.
The Parties to an Option
There are two parties to an option. There is the party who buys the option; and there is the party who sells the option. The party who sells the option is the writer. The party who writes the option has the obligation to fulfill the terms of the contract should it be exercised. This can be done by delivering to the appropriate broker 100 shares of the underlying security for each option written.
The Options Clearing Corporation
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) is the guarantor of all exchange-traded options once an option transaction has been completed. Once a seller has written an option and a buyer has purchased that option, the OCC takes over. It is the responsibility of the OCC who oversees the obligations to fulfill exercises. If I want to exercise that XYZ November 100-call option, I notify my broker. My broker notifies the OCC. The OCC then randomly selects a brokerage firm, which is short one XYZ November 100-call option that it must come up with 100 shares of XYZ stock. That brokerage firm then notifies one of its customer's who has written one XYZ November 100 call option that he must produce 100 shares of XYZ stock. His call has been exercised. The brokerage firm customer who is chosen can be chosen in one of two ways. He can be chosen at random. Or he can be chosen on a first in first out basis. Because the OCC has a certain risk that the seller of the option can't fulfill his contract, strict margin requirements are imposed on sellers. This margin requirement acts as a performance bond. It assures that the OCC will get its money.
At-The-Money, In-The-Money, Out-Of-The-Money
There are three different terms for describing where an option is trading in relation to the price of the underlying security. These terms are 'at-the-money', 'in-the-money', and 'out-of-the money'. Let's use our XYZ November 100 call as an example. If XYZ stock is trading at a price of 100, the November 100 call is considered to be trading 'at-the-money'. If XYZ stock is trading at a price greater than 100, say 102, the call option is considered to be 'in-the-money'. And if XYZ is trading at a price less than 100, say 98, the call option is considered to be trading 'out-of-the-money. Conversely, if it was an XYZ November 100 put option we owned, if the price of XYZ stock was 102, the put option would be considered to be 'out-of-the-money. And if XYZ stock were trading at a price of 98, the put option would be considered to be trading 'in-the-money'. If XYZ stock were again trading at 100, the put option would be 'at-the-money'.
Intrinsic Value & Time ValueIntrinsic Value
The price difference between the underlying security and the option's strike price is the intrinsic value. For example, let's take that XYZ November 100 call. If XYZ is trading at 102, and the call option is priced at 2, the intrinsic value is 2. If an XYZ November 100 put is trading at 3, and the price of XYZ stock is trading at 97, the intrinsic value of the put option is 3. If XYZ stock were trading at 99, an XYZ November 100 call would have no intrinsic value. And conversely, if XYZ stock were trading at 101, an XYZ November 100 put option would have no intrinsic value. An option must be in-the-money to have intrinsic value.
Time Value
Time value is the amount by which the price of the option exceeds its intrinsic value. For example, that XYZ November 100 call, with XYZ trading at 102, might be selling for 4-1/2. Thus, there is 2 points in intrinsic value and 2-1/2 points in time value. If XYZ were trading at 99, and the price of the option was 2, there would be no intrinsic value and 2 points in time value. If an XYZ November 100 put was priced at 3 and XYZ stock was trading at 99, there would be 1 point in intrinsic value and 2 points in time value. If an XYZ November 100 put was trading at 2 and XYZ stock was priced at 101, there would be 2 points in time value and no intrinsic value. The time value premium of an option declines as the expiration date approaches.
Intrinsic Value + Time Value = Option Price Factors Influencing the Price of an Option
There are four major factors, which determine the price of an option. They are:
- The price of the underlying stock
- The strike price of the option itself
- The time remaining until the option expires
- The volatility of the underlying stock
Two less important factors in determining the price of an option are:
- The current risk free interest rate (usually the 90 day T-Bill is used for this calculation)
- Dividend rate of the underlying stock
The primary influence on an options price is the price of the underlying security. On expiration day, if I own one XYZ November 100 call, and XYZ is trading at 95, my call is worthless. On the other hand, if I own one XYZ November 100 call, and the price of XYZ on expiration day is 102, my call is worth at least 2 points.
An options price decays each day it is in existence. Further, the closer the option gets to expiration, the faster it decays. The rate of decay is related to the square root of the time remaining. An option with two months remaining decays at twice the speed of a four month option etc.
Volatility
The volatility part of the pricing model is a measure of the range the underlying security is expected to fluctuate over a given period of time. The measurement of volatility is the standard deviation of the daily price changes in the security. The more volatile the underlying security, the greater the price of the option. There are two different kinds of volatility. There is historical volatility; and there is implied volatility. Historical volatility estimates volatility based on past prices. Implied volatility starts with the option price as a given and works backward to ascertain the theoretical value of volatility equal to the market price minus any intrinsic value.
Black Scholes Option Pricing Model
There are many different option pricing models in practice. However, the original breakthrough was in the Black-Scholes model. It was a model for pricing options before options were widely traded. The original Black Scholes model worked primarily for European style options. However, it has been modified to work with American style expiration. Since then, several variations have been developed. The Cox Rubenstein model and Yates models are two widely used models for pricing American style options. There are other binomial option pricing formulas. And some options are priced according the cost of the hedge for the specialist/market maker.
Buying a Put Option
A put is an options contract, which grants the owner of the put the right, not the obligation, to sell the underlying security at a specific price, within a specific time frame. The owner of a put (long the put) is expecting the underlying security to decline in price. Unlike a call option, the put option buyer does not have unlimited profit potential. This is so because theoretically, the underlying security can rise in price infinitely. Therefore, a call option can rise in price infinitely. However, an underlying security can never drop in price below zero. Therefore, the maximum profit a put option buyer can receive is if the underlying security drops to zero. I wouldn't expect this to happen.
Assume a trader expects the price of XYZ to decline from its current price of 93. He might buy the November 95 put option for 4-1/4. Should the price of XYZ decline to 88 by November expiration, the put option would be worth 7 points. A gain of 2-3/4 points or 69%. The investor might also choose to close the position if XYZ drops two or three points quickly. This is because there would still be a significant amount of time premium left (assume 3 or 4 weeks left to expiration). If this is the case, the investor would profit almost dollar for dollar with the decrease in price. Thus, he would realize even larger gains. Should the price of XYZ rise instead of decline, the most the investor can lose is his original investment of 4-1/4 points (plus commissions). The risk is predetermined and set at the time he initiates his options position.
Another important thing to consider is that the short seller of stock is obligated to pay the dividends. The put option buyer is not obligated to do this.
Many investors who own stock in their portfolio will buy puts in order to protect their portfolio in the event the stock(s) turns decline in price. Another alternative for a portfolio diversified with many S&P 100 stocks, is to purchase OEX puts. That is, a put option on an entire index which mirrors part or all of your portfolio.
Buying an out of the money put option carries a greater return, however, it carries greater risk. As is the case with a call, a buyer of an out of the money put option can find he picked the direction right, however, the underlying security didn't move down fast enough, leaving him with a loss. With a few exceptions, it is too risky for me to buy an out of the money put option or call option.
If a put option buyer finds himself with a substantial profit on the put, he can take several different courses of follow up action involving different options strategies. He can sell the put option (liquidate his position) and take the profit. He can do nothing and remain in the position. He can sell (liquidate) the put option, take the profit, and roll down into another put with part of the profit. Thus, holding a put option with someone else's money. He can maintain the put option and sell an out-of-the money put option creating a bear spread with puts. Or last, he can buy a call for protection.
For example, an investor with a five point profit in a put option he's holding, may decide to sell (liquidate) the put option. He takes his profit and is on his way. However, this prevents the put holder from participating in any further gain because of further decline in the underlying security.
The investor can do nothing and hold the put option until expiration if he is up several points on the put. However, this is a risky tactic. While he may profit further if the underlying security goes down in price, he may also give substantial amounts of profit back if it rises in price.
Another options strategy alternative to the investor with a substantial profit in a put option is to sell the put and buy another lower strike put option. Assume an investor has purchased the XYZ November 95 put when XYZ was at 96 at a price of 1-1/2. A couple of weeks later, with one month until expiration, XYZ has fallen in price to 91; and the November 95 put option is now worth 6-1/2 points. The investor could sell the November 95 put option for 6-1/2 and buy the November 90 put which is presently at 2-1/2. He has now kept 4 points of profit and is participating in the November 90 puts with someone else's money. Further, he can participate in any further downside movement by XYZ.
The investor with large profits in a put option can also create a bear spread by selling the next lower put. Going back to our XYZ example, the investor holding the November 95 put, with XYZ trading at 90, may want to sell the November 85 put option for 2-1/2 points. This would cover the cost of his original transaction (the original purchase of the November 95 put), allow him to participate in further downside movement, lock in some profits, and limit his downside risk. Should the underlying security rise above 95 by expiration, both puts are worthless. However, the investor loses nothing because the put option he sold paid for the put he purchased. Should XYZ decline to 85 at expiration, the November 95 put will be worth 10, and the November 85 will be worthless, resulting in a 10 point profit (12-1/2 points overall return - 2-1/2 points originally paid for the November 95 put). See the section titled bear spreads with puts.
One other options strategy to consider after a put option increases in price and substantial unrealized profits have accumulated, is to simply purchase a call. Assume the XYZ November 95 put has increased in price from 2-1/2 to 6-1/2. XYZ has declined in price from 96 to 91. The investor could purchase the November 90 call option for 2-1/2. Total cost at this time is 5 points. No matter where XYZ is at expiration, this trade will be worth at least 5 points. Further, if XYZ is above 95, or below 90, this trade will be worth more than the 5 points paid. The investor has guaranteed that he is in a risk free position. Further, if the underlying security doesn't stabilize at 90, he may profit handsomely should the underlying security move dramatically in price.
Yikes! What happens if you bought the XYZ November 95 put when XYZ was at 96, and three days later XYZ is trading at 98? I'm embarrassed to tell you how many times this has happened to me.
If the underlying security has now assumed a bullish pattern, the wisest thing to do is probably sell the put option and take the loss.
The second options strategy alternative is to sell two XYZ November 95 puts for a hypothetical price of 1-1/2 each. The options trader would simultaneously purchase one November 100 put for a hypothetical price of 3. The net cost to the investor is the cost of the commissions. The investor has now turned his options position into a bear spread. Should XYZ decline a little in price, he will hit his break-even point. Thus, he has raised his break-even point. However, he has limited his profit to 2 points.
A trader using options strategies has to be prepared to use some creative and flexible strategies in his follow up action. Rarely is an options trader locked into one course of action.
Buying a Call Option
A call is an options contract, which gives an investor the right, not the obligation, to purchase the underlying security at a specific price within a specific time period. Theoretically, the profit potential is unlimited, while the risk is limited to the amount paid for the option.
An investor might purchase the call instead of the underlying security so that he is able to buy the underlying security at a reasonable price without taking the chance that he misses out on a market move. He might want to do this if he had a large amount of cash coming in the near future, and had a smaller amount of cash available now. Feeling that a market move up is about to occur and he doesn't want to miss out he would leverage his money now and buy the call.
Another investor may purchase calls if his portfolio consists of low volatile stocks, but he wants to take a small percentage of his assets and trade higher volatile stocks. He would then be participating with some higher risk securities while limiting his risk to a fixed amount.
A third type of investor may purchase call options as pure speculation. He may not have the cash to purchase 1,000 shares of XYZ. However, he has enough cash to purchase 10 XYZ November 95 calls at 3-1/2. This would be an outlay of $3,500. Assume XYZ is trading at 95 when he does this. Should the price of XYZ rise to 98, the 95 call might be worth about 5-1/2. The speculative investor would then have a $2,000 profit (less commissions) and a return of 57%. He leveraged his position greatly.
Purchasing an out of the money call option carries greater reward, however, it also carries greater risk. Assume a stock is presently trading at 36. An investor is choosing between buying the October 35 call at 2-3/4 or the October 40 call at 1/2. For the October 40 call to get in the money, the underlying security would have to move about 11-1/2% in a short period of time (presently two weeks). This is unlikely to happen. However, if the investor purchases the October 35 call options the option has a much higher degree of probability of retaining value or increasing in price (assuming the underlying security rises) than the lower priced option. If the investor can't afford to buy the slightly in the money call option, he shouldn't be speculating with this type of an investment or options strategy.
An investor should always be willing to cut his losses if a stock is performing badly. Avoid the tendency to hold on to an option in the hope that the underlying security will come back in price. The probabilities indicate that the investor will do much better over time if he takes the small losses rather than holding out. The highly leverages positions in options strategies cut both ways.
If the underlying security has advanced in price in the early stages of the call purchase, the investor has several choices. He can sell the call and liquidate the position. He can sell the call and use part of the proceeds to purchase the next higher strike call option. He can create a spread by selling the next higher strike against the lower strike that he presently owns. He can do nothing and continue to own the call he has.
Liquidating the position and taking the profits is the least aggressive strategy. Keep in mind that if the underlying security continues to rise in price, the investor loses out on this appreciation. Conversely, if the underlying security declines in price, this would turn out to be the best choice.
Holding the call until expiration carries a great amount of risk. This is because the underlying security could decline in price by expiration. Thus, the investor might be letting a profit turn into a loss. One of the things that should be avoided at all costs. It ocassionally happens with different options strategies. However, it should be a rare exception.
The other two alternatives reduce risk; yet allow the trader to participate in the market and attempt to gain further profit. Selling (liquidating) the present call and rolling up to the next higher strike with part of the proceeds allows the trader the opportunity to continue in a position with little or no cost. He has kept most or all of his profits. Thus, he is playing with someone else's money. Not a bad position to be in.
The last alternative is to sell the next higher strike call option against the lower strike already owned. The investor is creating a bull spread. He has also locked in a certain amount of profit or at least minimized risk so that he should be able to break even (as long as the option had advanced at least 5 points). He can pick up extra profits if the stock remains relatively unchanged by expiration. This is a fairly common options strategy.
So what does the investor do if the price of the stock declines several points just after he buys the call? How about setting up a bull spread. Let's assume the investor bought the XYZ November 100 call and the price of XYZ drops to about 95 (sound familiar). I recommend selling two XYZ November 100 calls and buying one XYZ November 95 call. He has now rolled down into a bull spread. Additionally, he has lowered his break even point and lowered his maximum loss. However, he has limited his profit potential. Nevertheless, he is now in the bull spread for about the same price as his original position. See the section on Bull Spreads for a complete explanation of this type of spread. The important thing to know is that it is an alternative options strategy available should the underlying security decline in price.
If the investor owns an intermediate or long term call and the price declines, he may want to create a calendar spread. He could sell a shorter term call at the same strike price. If he owns the January or April 95 call, he might sell a November 95 call. If XYZ closes below 95, he has lowered the cost of his April 95 call. See the section on Calendar Spreads for a complete explanation. The important thing to know is that rolling into a calendar spread is an alternative should the price of the underlying security decline while owning a call.
The important thing to remember when you're long a call option is that there are are different options strategies the trader can position himself in as events unfold. You're not locked in to the one situation. You need to be flexible and creative.
Options Trading
Trading options is very hard work. There is also a tremendous amount of risk involved. If your friend is making a good living at it, he is one of the very few people who are making a living at it. The statistics are that over 90% of the people who try to trade options for a living lose money at it. These aren't our numbers they came from the CBOT.
One of the biggest problems is the 'Beginners Luck" factor. The Beginners Luck factor is when a person wins big their first week or on their first few trades. They gain undeserved confidence and begin to become a little reckless. The individual feels that this is pretty easy. They feel that they can make a lot of money trading options. Life's great and all is well with the world. The individual options trader feels that he's smarter than the rest of the traders (professional and amateur) and he'll be able to retire rich in a couple of years.
However, the facts are that trading for a living is hard work. The odds are stacked against you. And most of the time, this lucky beginning options trader is going to put all his profits back and then some in a few weeks time. The single greatest problem for the industry is that these individuals crash and burn so quickly. Data providers and software vendors constantly have to look for a new stream of clients because so many of their present clients crash and burn. If they don't have any money left they can't trade. They don't need the software and they don't need the data service.
The reality is that there are very few traders who are consistently profitable. The best traders have drawdowns and bad periods. They can stay in the game because they are well capitalized. So the new trader has to have enough money in his account to be able to suffer a severe drawdown and still be able to trade. Because once you lose your money and you don't have any more to trade with, the game is over.
The problem with options is that if a person is buying straight put options and call options, the underlying equity has to reach a certain price by a specified period of time. There is a high probability that an option could expire worthless. Unlike a futures contract, you can't roll an option contract over to another expiration date.
Options as a strategy combined with the underlying security, can be a sound strategy given the right circumstances. Very few professionals buy options outright for speculation. A couple of years ago, for example, we bought Microsoft (MSFT) puts. We had 84 as a downside target. We were one week off in our time period analysis. Microsoft did hit 84, however, it did so one week after our options expired. The options expired worthless.
If a person wants to begin trading options, consider the following. First, don't quit your day job. Second, invest in some good technical analysis software. Third, set aside some money that if you lose it all, it doesn't matter (don't start with less than $15,000 - $20,000). Fourth, start by analyzing end of day data. Use a data provider to provide end of day quotes only. Don't begin trading real time, intra-day. Fifth, paper trade for at least six months. Develop your systems and the indicators you're going to rely on during this time. Sixth, at the end of six months if you have a profit, consider trading for real with modest sums. If you have a loss, continue to paper trade until you can develop a winning strategy.
When a person is paper trading he must simulate real time performance as closely as possible. Buy your options at the closing prices. Set stop loss and limit orders to sell. Don't say to yourself that you 'would have gotten out at this point'. You never do. Set specific levels to enter and exit. Stay on top of it every day. And if the stock gaps up or down the next day after you placed your opening or closing order either disregard the trade or take the loss. Don't cheat.
Drawdowns are bound to happen. In fact, it's written in just about every book on trading. But don't be deceived. What happens is that the trader says to himself that drawdowns are going to happen. The books all say so. I'm just going through a bad time. It will get better. Guess what? It never does. Here's the reality. A drawdown is a nice word for a loss. Put another way, losses are part of the game. They are inevitable. But a loss is a loss no matter how you look at it. If you start to run into the situation where your losses are consistently larger than the few gains your winning, stop trading. You're about to lose a lot of money. Losses equal money out of your pocket that you will never see again. Step back, stop trading, and take a couple of months off. Then you have to start all over by figuring out a new method of analyzing the securities to trade.
Presumably, you work hard for your money and want to keep it. So don't give it away.
Another creative way small investors have come up with to give away their money is when they first start trading. It starts with the plan. The trader goes out and buys some very expensive real time technical analysis software. Then the trader signs up for very expensive real time quotes. Then he realizes that the indicators and systems that came with the software aren't good enough for his purposes. He needs to go out and buy some custom indicators and systems, which will run inside his software. Maybe he'll even buy a neural net. Certainly he needs option analysis software. All of the sudden he's dropped $5,000 to $15,000 on setting up his computer systems for analysis and data.
He hasn't placed one trade and he's already spent enough money to buy a nice car. In fact, he should have probably bought a car instead. He'd have something to show for his money six months down the road. Instead, what he should have done is bought a good end-of-day technical analysis software program and signed up for end of day data. The cost of the software is less than $500 and the data service should cost less than $65 per month. You don't need extra add-in indicators and systems. Learn the basics. We use them every day in our analysis. True, we also use proprietary systems and statistical analysis combined with portfolio allocation models. However, for technical analysis of the underlying securities, the basics work just fine. Presumably, you work hard for your money and want to keep it. So don't give it away.
A friend of mine called me and told me that his wife (an upper level manager for a publicly held company) had stock options, which could be converted into stock or cash worth about $345,000. He wanted to know what their alternatives were.
Many companies make stock options or discounted stock available to their employees. When the time comes for the options to be exercised, most people are not sure what they should do. They are not sure how to exercise the options. They don't know whether to take the money in cash or exercise the options and hold the company's stock. My friend's situation is not unique. In today's economic environment most people seem to be exercising their options and taking the cash. There are several options available.
A person can take the options convert them to stock and sell all the stock immediately. The second thing a person can do is convert the options to stock and sell part of the stock and hold part of the stock to sell at a later date. The third thing a person can do is to convert the options to stock and hold all the stock to sell at a later date. The choice of which alternative an individual chooses is entirely up to that individual and their own unique circumstances.
In any case, the options need to be converted to stock. Many companies will help their employees convert their options to stock without having to put up any money. Other people have to go to a brokerage firm to convert their options to stock. Further, if you want the cash instead of the stock, they then have to sell the stock. This involves several commissions. And the brokerage firm has to lay out their own money for the initial purchase of the stock if you want to convert it to cash and don't want to put up any money. So there is also a loan involved to you to which the firm is entitled to interest. For this service, the brokerage firm charges a handsome fee. However, I recommend that you call around to several brokers. You can bargain for this service. And not all brokers are going to charge the same fee. When my friend called around he found the high to low range to be several thousand dollars. Indeed, a very wide range.
Another concern is that at many companies large amounts of employees may vest at about the same time. They can all convert their options or inexpensive stock at about the same time. If large amounts of employees do this at the same time, and convert their options or cheap stock to cash, the stock price may drop substantially. Thus, the price you thought you might get for your stock will be substantially lower. To avoid this, some employees short the stock ahead of the vesting date. This way they lock in a certain price at which they can sell their stock. They short the amount of shares they can convert to. Then they substitute their own shares for the short shares. A hurdle for this type of transaction is that the employee will have to have a margin account open at a brokerage firm. And the employee will have to put up 50% of the price of the stock. So my friends wife would have had to put up over $170,000 to short her company's stock. However, had she chosen to do this, she would have locked in the stock price at that time. But if the stock continued to appreciate during this time and continued to appreciate after she could cash in her options, she would miss out in this advancement in price. This is one risk to shorting the stock.
Another problem with shorting a company's stock is that many companies have rules against an employee shorting the company's stock for any reason. Other companies have certain limited times throughout the year in which they are allowed to sell the company's stock or short the company's stock. Your company should provide you with all the rules surrounding the purchase and sale of company stock. If they didn't, or they did and you're still unsure, ask them again for explanations.
One last thing, many employees have been converting their options into cash and putting it elsewhere other than their own company. They do this for one simple reason, they don't want their retirement nest egg or their vacation home tied to the company's fortunes. It is important to them to diversify their own holdings. They can still be a company person. But in today's day and age, be sure to look out for yourself. No one else is going to.
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